To what kind of world will we recover?
Delve into seven world-shaping megatrends, analyse the data that defines them, and plot their potential impact on individual industries.
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by UBS
The content in this infographic was relevant when it was published on 18 June 2020.
Current views may differ.
Life expectancy is currently stalled in the OECD.1 With research from the Marmot Review showing how the influence of rising income inequality influences length of life2, it seems counter-intuitive that Covid-19 may lead to longevity.
But government spending on health tech is likely to be prioritised post-pandemic, following its pivotal performance in 2020.
Whilst obesity is putting significant pressure on future life-expectancy and GDP growth in G20 countries, the clear link between obesity and mortality highlighted by the coronavirus will likely shift governmental policy from treatment to prevention.
Obesity impact – percentage difference in GDP due to overweight, 2020-50 average
Use the pulldown menu to compare countries to averages
Japan
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
(% difference in GDP)
Source: OECD analyses based on the OECD SPHeP-NCDs model and OECD long-term economic model, 2019, UBS
We’re getting healthier too: with no alternative to cooking and exercising at home, we ate more vegetables and lifted more weights in lockdown.
Year-on-year growth rates and rank of 100 fastest-growing categories in e-commerce in the US
Category
Rank
YoY growth
Weight Training
8
307%
Vegetables
14
238%
Health Monitors
28
182%
Fitness Equipment
31
170%
Single Vitamins
32
166%
Fruit Snacks
35
162%
Yoga Equipment
42
154%
Digestion and Nausea
46
144%
Herbal Supplements
48
136%
Multivitamins
52
126%
Category
Rank
YoY growth
Juices
55
125%
Smoking Cessation
56
122%
Dried Fruits & Raisins
57
120%
Nuts & Seeds
62
116%
Minerals
68
113%
Humidifiers
72
105%
Skin Care
79
99%
Air Purifiers
82
97%
Energy Supplements
93
84%
Respiratory
94
82%
Source: Stackline, UBS. Note: Year-on-year growth rates are as of March 2020.
This may tail off in coming months, but UBS believes the soaring demand for vitamins and the drop in smoking indicate the consumer pivot to a healthier lifestyle might stick, even if catalysed by the virus.
Sectors in focus
Demand for Medtech should be underpinned by ageing demographics, increased spending on healthcare in developing markets and product innovations.
As the population ages, expenditure on leisure, healthcare and housing increases, benefiting Real Estate and Leisure.
Banking and Insurance may suffer if saving levels rise, borrowing falls and pension funds are forced into riskier assets.
Sources:
1, 2. The Marmot Review, UBS
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