US Economy

Will the models miss a US recession?

The consensus view is that the risk of a US recession in 2020 is receding. UBS disagrees, believing forecasting models may underestimate the impact of the Trade War on the world’s largest economy. UBS’s Global and US Heads of Economic Research are joined by Raghuram Rajan, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, to mull over the models and assess the task of policy makers.

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